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I have been following GME since mid-September and over that time I have banked myself a %1300 return in the process. However, the whole time I was a little puzzled with how severe the reactions from Wall Street have been, especially this week. "The company had more than 100% of its stock sold short! That's never happened before!", you say. I know, I know, but that's not actually not a new thing. A short squeeze, even one of this magnitude, should have squoze by now with GME up more than 10x in the span of weeks. Something is just not right. I think there is something much, much bigger going on here. Something big enough to blow up the entire financial system. submitted by johnnydaggers to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] Here is my hypothesis: I think the hedge funds, clearing houses, and DTC executed a coordinated effort to put Game Stop out of business by conspiring to create a gargantuan number of counterfeit shares of GME, possibly 100-200% or more of the shares originally issued by Game Stop. In the process, they may have accidentally created a bomb that could blow up the entire system as we know it and we're seeing their efforts to cover this up unfold now. What is that bomb? I believe retail investors may hold more than 100% of GME (not just 100% of the float, more than 100% of the actual company). This would be definitive proof of illegal activity at the highest levels of the financial system. For you to follow this argument, you need to go read the white paper "Counterfeiting Stock 2.0" so you understand how the hedge funds can create fake stock out of thin air and disguise it so it looks like real shares. They use these fake shares in short attacks to drive the price of a company down until they put them into bankruptcy. This practice seems to be widespread among hedge funds that go short. There is even a term for it, "strategic fails–to–deliver." Counterfeiting shares is extremely illegal (similar level to counterfeiting money) but it's very difficult to prove and even getting the court to approve subpoenas because of the way the financial industry has stacked the deck against investigations. This completely explains why so many levels of the financial system seem to be actively trying to get in the way of retail investors purchasing more GME. It's not just about a short squeeze, it's about their firms' very existence and their own personal freedom. We have the opportunity to put all these people in jail by proving that we own more than 100% of shares in existence. There are are 71 million shares of GME that have ever been issued by the company. Institutions have reported to the SEC via 13F filings that they own more than 102,000,000 shares (including the 13% of GME stock is owned by Ryan Cohen). Now, I don't know the delay/variance on these ownership numbers, but I think there is a pretty solid argument that close to 100% of GME is owned by these firms, if not more. Moreover, there are now more than 7 million people subscribed to wallstreetbets~~. I know lots of people here are sitting on a few hundred shares that they bought back when it was under $50. Some of us are even holding thousands. If the average number of shares owned by each subscriber is even close to 5-10, we have a very good shot at also owning a similarly enormous amount of GME.~~ Even if the average was just 10 shares per legit subscriber, that puts the minimum retail position at about 30-50% of the entire company. GME has been on the NYSE threshold list for almost a month. We don't have January data yet, but I just analyzed the data from the SEC's fails–to–deliver list for December (all 65,871 lines of it) and looked up the number of shares that were likely counterfeit. For comparison, I did the same for a couple random tickers. Most companies have close to no shares not show up. Of those that do, it's a relatively small number of shares. For example, two random companies: Lowes ($LOW, ~$125B market cap) had 13,960 shares fail to be delivered at its highest point that month, Boston Beer Company ($SAM, $11.5B market cap) had 295 shares fail to be delivered. How many shares of GME failed to deliver? 1,787,191. As the white papers points out, the true number of counterfeit shares can be 20x this number. How bad do you think that number will be when we get the numbers for January? I'm willing to bet its many times that. Look at how that compares to other companies' stock: Histogram showing number of shares that weren't delivered in December (x-axis) vs the number of companies that fall into that bin (y-axis). GME is an extreme outlier. I think this explains all the shenanigans going on the last few days. There is way too much counterfeit GME stock out there and DTC, the clearing houses, and the hedge funds are all in on it. That's why there has been such a coordinated effort to disrupt our ability to buy shares. No real shares can be found and it's about to cause the system to fall apart. TLDR; We probably own way more of GME than we think and that is freaking out Wall Street because it could prove they've been up to some extremely illegal shit and the whole system could implode as a result. Disclaimer: I'm just a starving engineering PhD student and I don't work in finance. I have no inside knowledge of how the financial system works and I may be wrong on some of this. This is not financial advice and you shouldn't trade based on it. I am book-smart but I still eat crayons like the rest of you. Obligatory rocket: 🚀 EDIT 0: Looks like I truly belong on this sub. On the first version of this post I didn't read the file description properly and summed a cumulative distribution. My numbers were wrong, but I have updated the plot and post with the correct numbers. EDIT 1: You should also note this is the distribution for NASDAQ tickers, not the entire NYSE. I doubt that the distribution trend is any different though. EDIT 2: Evidence that Fannie May and Freddie Mac were killed in 2008 via short attacks using counterfeit shares: report. Exactly what I think they were trying to do to GME. EDIT 3: A lot of people were hung up on the "3 shares per wsb subscriber thing". I know many accounts are bots, I was intentionally underestimating that number. I have adjusted to 10 shares per "legit subscriber" to reflect this without changing the total amount I think retail owns. EDIT 4: What I'm seeing on Twitter makes me think I'm being interpreted a little too hyperbolically when I say "Something big enough to blow up the entire financial system." We're not going to go back to mud huts, people. This could just be really disruptive for a short amount of time and cause a number of firms to face liquidity problems, possibly bankrupting some of them. Life will go on and I'm confident regulators and government will step in and protect people if necessary. Hopefully they pay more attention to enforcing securities laws going forward to prevent this from happening again. EDIT 5: Backup link for white paper. EDIT 6: I am getting thousands of messages. I won't be able to respond to all of them. Here is an FAQ:
|
Date | Volume | Price at US Market Close |
---|---|---|
Friday, 1/22/21 | 197,157,196 | $65.01 |
Monday, 1/25/21 | 177,874,00 | $76.79 |
Tuesday, 1/26/21 | 178,587,974 | $147.98 |
Wednesday, 1/27/21 | 93,396,666 | $347.51 |
Thursday, 1/28/21 | 58,815,805 | $193.60 |
Ok retards listen up. Been seeing lots of cucks writing small DD pieces of bullish or bearish shit. You cucks need to read this cos this is the whole fucking thing.this is also basically my magnum fucking opus so upvote retards. Dont give me awards, legit go buy a powerup membership for a year. Cant tell you to buy shares because we gonna get closed down by SEC somehow.im also not some fininacial advisor or whatever just read this and make your own conclusions degenerates. Im not fucking liable lmao but i am balls deep 125 shares @ 19 average now, its literally all I have on this earth. TLDR: GME DD sumarized, Margin wont affect longs the same way as shorts right now. Dont buy shares on margin though and get ready to supply collateral regardless. Short interest is up and some smart retards are on our side. Read the post to raise your IQ from 8 to 9 though. 🐻 🌈s mega fuk and even posting high level bear shit to scare us. Compulsory 7 rockets so you autists dont start having a seizure or something: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Basically been seeing posts about "blah blah margin this, short interest this, WS to clever blah". Going to split this post into distinct sections but im no english degree cuck so dont expect any bear bloomberg level shit or something 1. GME is a fucking steal regardless of squeeze. Buy now or be left on a dying planet while we head to alpha fucking centauri.So basically everyone here knows about Ryan cohen and his horsemen of the apocalypse coming to steal melvins lunch money. This man bought apple stock in 2017. Hes fucking rich. Hes also an eccommerce wizard, taking CHEWY from a measly 100k co-founded company to a $4 Billion company in 2017 at which point he sold it to petsmart or something. Its now valued at $40 Billion, granted anything eccommerce now gets money thrown at it like a stripper in a high flying strip club or some shit idk im a virgin so dont listen to me, so it may well be a bubble. Regardless the thing grows its revenue like bacteria doing binary fission on agar jelly 🚀🚀🚀🚀.THEY SELL FUCKING PET FOOD. the market for that is like what? $1?. Gaming is going to the moon and is basically recession proof because of how cheap game is compared to other things for how much you get out of it. Any bears saying that Gamestop cant compete with digital or with amazon. Ryan cohen already slapped amazons head in with a no name brand. Hell fucking do it again. About digital everyone here already knows, microsoft deal, Ryan cohen also mentioned the possibility of having "Digital game exchanging" or something, image below. Online trade ins. It says online.🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 He also mentions streaming, digital content etc and aside from all the digital stuff wants GME to move to a community centric structure where big stores operate with VR centres, Internet cafe, table games like Dungeons and dragons and 40k (rapidly growing somehow will boom post covid) and as we now might know due to this post: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kypuyb/gme_dd_buildapc_kiosks_coming/ BUILD YOUR OWN PC KIOSKS. This is the literal smell of money. Go to your Gamestop to build your PC with your kid? Gamestop is already the goto place wher your parents go to get you your latest digital fix so now they can go build PC's and it cant go tits up? Now for some pussy boomer talk (aka fundametals or something). The expected Q3 EPS was -0.84$ or something close to that. The actual loss was -0.53$ but boomzoids only talked about the revenue drop. No shit sherlock its closing all its dead weight stores. In the holiday report I will talk about a bit more below, 11% of stores were closed and revenue dropped only 3%. Comparitive store sales increased nearly 5%. They cant get enough consoles to sell so expect the momentum to carry on for the whole year I expect. Eccommerce is up 300% over holidays. In Q3 they reported 800% to date. In 2020 Gamestops eccomerce went up 24x. YES YOU READ THAT RIGHT. Online sales now account for ~33% of Gamestops sales now. This is literally gold dust for ryan cohen. We are still trading at 0.38 P/S at this price. The average P/S for the SP500 is 2.753. Massive upside on these two numbers alone. Burry got in this for the MOASS and the intrinsic value. At the time intrinsic value was like $22 and this will pump up as RC takes it to new heights. GME in Q3 somehow halved the expected loss. Big Bad Boomer sherman somehow didnt fuck it up that bad by saying "omnichannel" at the speed of light. Yes the revenue dropped 30% but thats covid for you. As the PC kiosk post above shows GME now sells small items basically so fast they have to have fake stock lmao. The new console cycle always spikes the share price sky high too, as youll see in a crayon drawing later. The potential revenue that this console cycle brings in could be huge. Biggest ever is potentially a true statement and Gamestop sells every fucker they get. Combine the fact that they share game pass ( a massive hit) revenue from the xboxes they sell, something no other retailer has, revenue could be sky high. Now I know you autists are starting to develop short term dyslexia or something but keep reading. This could be the most important piece of shit you read in your life. How do you think I feel? My brains overheating just trying to write coherent sentences. Holdiay report was a bear trap imo, saw people saying the decrease in revenue was bearish blah blah blah. Lies. Comparitve store sales rose 5% and thats with some towns having like 4 gamestops. When the leases dont get renewed and these stores get liquidated (Also in Ryan cohens letter) they can just get this influx of cash and pay down debt and invest in logistics and marketing and new growth. Gamestop realistically needs like 1/2 the stores they have now and just need to improve efficiency. https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/349890 this article the messiah himself wrote. In it he states: At Chewy, we had maniacal discipline when it came to how we spent money. The company-wide culture of frugality came from his example. Free cash flow was our unwavering governor of growth. We grew Chewy from $200 million in sales in 2013 to $3.5 billion in 2018 while spending only $130 million in capital, all of which went into opening distribution centers across the country and acquiring new customers.Maniacal. Thats all I need to say. The guy is going to get to mars before papa musk and he wont even break a sweat. When FCF starts to catch up to WS expectations every analyst who donwgraded them is gonna get ditched and upgrades will start to happen. So in the heading i said its a steal. That implies some future higher price target right? Well here is my guess for a conservative price target based on the information above and also some more I probably forgot cos im a retard. The difference is where share price looks to be and where market cap places us is due to difference in outstanding shares (another reason shorts are fuk) The difference is where share price looks to be and where market cap places us is due to difference in outstanding shares (another reason shorts are fuk)This alone means if for not inflation adjusted terms we reached 9.8Bn or whatever the crayon chart says we should reach: 9.8/2.48 = ~3.95 3.95 * $35.5 = ~$140. The share price now to reach old mkt cap is $140 fucking dollars. Thats a 4 bagger from now. It gets better. from statista : Considering the annual inflation rate in the United States in recent years, a 2.24 percent inflation rate is a very moderate projection.If we take 2.24% inflation, the this share price target in todays money means we should reach $182 because of $140 * 1.0224^12, = $182 in adjusted. Thats more than a 5 bagger. basically we could see $10 GME price from short manipulation and buying more is basically a lottery ticket! I really dont understand the bear thesis. The only bear thesis ( short term this one) was that margin would affect longs more but I looked at it on ortex and its basically bullshit. Buy shares with cash though dont use margin. Own your piece of GME dont borrow it. Bears just spout "DigITaL" or "BlOCKbuSTER" so much Ryan tweeted a shit emoji at them. All the bears think theyre clever. What the fuck makes those cucks special? How are they different now than the ones from $2, or $4, or $10. Bears are betting against: Ryan fucking cohen, buisness legend CHEWY from 100k investment, now 40 billion Michael burry, Investing legend, predicted the housing crisis and is in GME since april u/DeepFuckingValue , the new WSB god chad, now basically a whale Reggie Fils-Aimé, gaming and buisness legend, former COO of nintendo Senvest, a mega fund thats actively managed Norweigan sovereign wealth fund Fidelity, Vanguard and blackrock own this shit and are never selling they literally dont give a shit All of WSB has now formed a shield wall against the bears Microsoft gave GME highly discounted azure deals and free office use for all employees and a revenue sharing agreement. Bears are stupid if they think MSFT didnt vet GME. Some valid bear thesis left now (the only ones left) -- Ryan Cohen dies. 2. Now some analysis on the short squeeze and some technical data on puts and calls and ortex data.Ok everyone on here and their cat, dog, bedbugs and wifes boyfriend knows about the squeeze. Jimmy chill aka cramer even talking about it. Gamestop is literally the most shorted stock of all time and space. The squeeze makes every autist salivate because its basically free money while cucking big money out of like what 1% of their fund.Although I know all you cucks hate shares, and hate holding, if the squeeze doesnt happen selling is probably the most retarded thing anyone could do. Its literally buy high sell low and you fucking disgust me. STONK ONLY GOES UP. This squeeze is so monumental that its been sucking sharks in like fresh blood. Most of the funds where shorting this from 30-15 dollars before this year so they didnt really care. It all changed with 2 people. u/DeepFuckingValue and Dr. Michael Burry. These guys are as OG as it gets with GME. I think u/DeepFuckingValue may have even sniffed this trade out before the legend himself. Since then funds will have churned this through their rules and started jumping on this train. Ive been in since $13 with 125 shares. If I had more money Id be buying but im just some stupid student ok. Im merely a medium for this money made information. The stats for this stock now short wise are, from ortex: Concrete short interest as of 31 December 2020: 71 Million. Estimated short interest, January 11th data: (This isnt predicted, this is from data in flow, has margin of error) : 77 Million Short shares on loan 7 days ago: 50 Million Short shares on loan now (This breaks the bearish margin calls affect longs more thesis): 54.2 Million % of known float short: 147% as of 31 December 2020 % of know free float on loaned shorts: 108% as of January 11th. Some guy on here took into account extra buying on wednesday, Institutions, Burry, RC's extra 7% and WSB ownership (something so stupendously retarded no serious firm will do it) that float on short could be in the 100s of %. Total short float now I would say could be 200-400% if the numbers are correct. This pisses on all other short squeezes. Some countries ban shorting above 100% cos of how autistic it is. The recent hike in interactive brokers available shares is probably a mix of sell off on friday (remember some guys are now buying lambos with GME money. If they held they could buy 10), calls exercising and puts being covered and brokers ditching the shares. Nakedshort even reported 5 million naked GME shorts on friday. This is bullish as fuck because the best the shorts could do on a red market day was -10%. Gamestop is still on the SECs threshold list for 27 days now. This shows naked short selling and downwards pressure hasnt capitulated Need rockets 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀: Ok so now if WSB owns an estimated 6-8% of the stock and we all know to move over to cash accounts now to avoid margin calls, we should be minimizing longs getting margin called. Every bear on stockwits is a clueless cuck who spouts "blockbuster" and these guys dont even know what margin even is so my bet is the colossal 54 Million shares short on loan are gonna be affected by the margin calls more. Why? Because every long on margin is in the green, and now a true zealot/extremist/autist for ryan cohen so will supply their account with collateral to avoid margin call. Shorts are in the massive red zone. How do I know you ask? Ortex data from Jan 4th 2021: This is the data from ortex for short interest for Gamestop for Jan 4th So this shows for jan 4th the estimated short interest is 66.98 Million shares. From the exchange reported 71 Million on december 31st this makes a lot of sense because the share price fell from ~21 to ~17 so shorts took profits. The shares on loan arent for longs too. This is all purely short data, and 47M shorted at $17 this shows. These shorts are in a circle of hell we cant comprehend and makes satan scared. 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Now for the data for this week: Ortex short data for Jan 14th for Gamestop SHARES ON LOAN HAVE GONE UP. BUT 87% OF LOANED SHORTS WHERE SHORTING AT SUB $20. Cost to borrow is also up, estimated short interest is up to a cataclysmic amount. Longs on margin need to supply collateral, but we are in the massive green zone, shorts are underwater. Margin calls will ravage the shorts and sting the longs. We also have the uptick rule in place until the end of the day, so shorts can only short on the way up. Im not saying itll happen but this shit is skewed in our favour big time. we need to 💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌. 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Seen a lot of talk about Gamma hedging and delta. You realize that the fucking bankers and brokers dont understand gamma hedging right? That shits up their with the black-scholes equation and feynman-kac solution. Forget about it. The retards claiming to understand it are either payed by hedge funds or lose money. The guy who took out outs thinking options exercising and gamma hedging would lead to a collossal sell off on friday lost money on his puts because no one except some quants in a goldman sachs server room know this shit. The idea is simple about neutral delta on options that people take out, but the simple system interacts with every other thing in the stock market, and wow who couldve guessed it, like nearly any other element of the stock market predicting something by the day is nigh impossible. That guy talking about Gamma , Delta and margin calls is on weeklies. Hes no more autistic and equally retarded as all of us. Hes a chill guy though so dont berate a fellow brother. Now weve established the likelihood of longs getting margin called is far smaller than shorts, on to the options distributions Two images now: Top one is before the end of the 15th, the other one is after market close: This shows the suspected melvin puts (51000 contracts, 5 Million shares, rolled up from july, strike price $24) and lots of big ITM calls. 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 This shows the big put contract didnt get rolled over and the big ITM calls got exercised on friday. Large puts are underwater big timem while calls are in the big tendy zone. These two graphs, show before market close and after. As we can see the massiver 51000 put contracts didnt get rolled over and the chances that those were melvins july puts rolled up is very high. They expired worthless. Lots of calls are printing big time while huge amounts of puts are worthless and bleeding money. Something else we can extrapolate from the charts is that massive options trades are not present on the scale we saw before (tens of thousands). 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 We are seeing a discrepancy in the number of puts/calls opening up at the higher prices with calls gaining fast. This could show that some funds are now becoming optimistic on the long or short term prospects of gamestop. There are also more puts than options and if we assume this for shorts vs longs on margin (without even taking into account that all shorts are borrowed shares and pay interest further bleeding cash) then shorts are likely on more margin than longs. Regardless fellow autists my main point is two show that the bears are underwater and the bulls are flying high with regards to options. Now lets compare this possible squeeze with others. Bear in mind this is the most shorted stock of all time, but differences in free float change the share price differently. Kodak went from $2.16 to $33.2 Volkswagen went from ~200 euro to nearly 1000. Overstock went from ~$21 to $123 Blue apron went from $2.31 to $18 Ive been seeing some estimated that 1 million shares is roughly a dollars move in share price. This maths is about to be pretty autistic so bear with me degnerates. $1 now is 2.81% of the share price. Everything in the markets is exponential and based on percentages. So if we assume a full squeeze of ortexs estimated short interest (This assumes no sell off and no new shorts, new shorts can be positive or negative depedning on when in the squeeze they happen) $35.5 * 1.0281^77 = $299. GME to moon. 🌑 . This shit can happen. Hold on. GME has squeezed and been manipulated before and it always happens around the console cycles. Shorts never win and they wont win now. This post right here I found months ago and got me in the squeeze from the honourable and valiant u/Uberkikz aka Rod Alzman Basically the crayon chart shows green (outstanding shares) orange ( short shares) purple (Market cap) and cyan (Share price). In 2006-2008 the share price rose in tandem with short interest ( Like now ) Until console releases when you can see an abrupt squeeze happend mooning the share price. This happend to a degree in 2013 with the xbox one but worse conditions for the company and a worse console launch lead to slow short covering but the share price still mooned. Now we get to the best part. History is repeating itself for the third time and the shares sold short are literally higher than the outstanding shares, which have been decreasing since 2010. Short shares are also at the highest point ever and GME hasnt had a brighter future, well ever. Ps5 and Xbox Series X. are the two most hyped consoles since the Ps2. This is setting up the foundations for massive price movements weve never seen before. This shit has literally never happend, ever. Uncharted waters and we are the captain. For the insurmountably retarded autists who think that the squeeze has happend look upon this and despair: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kwpf6k/gme_gang_there_hasnt_been_a_short_squeeze_yet/ IHOR IS A MEGA WIZARD Ihor I quote: A long-buying tsunami ... is the primary factor for the price moveIhor Dusaniwsky is managing director of predictive analytics at S3 a firm similar to ortex. He told bloomberg that the squeeze hasnt happend yet and that this was long buying. If someone knows this shit its him. He was talking about the tesla squeeze in january 2020. He has access to resources we can only imagine. Barrons cut his comment that the squeeze hasnt happend yet out it was that fucking bullish. All the media ramming down "Short squeeze has happend" down peoples throats because bears are fucking scared. The bots on stocktwits spamming bearish sentiment should show how rattled they are. Edit: You fucking degens just enlightened me that cramer pump is real, funds are ruminating over the long weekend, and stmmy bills pumps stonks and that stimmy bill buys many an xbox. See you at andromeda! Also more rockets. Edit**: Some autists thought lottery ticket was misleading so instead, gauranteed lottery numbers!** Edit 3: RYAN FUCKING COHEN TWEETED THE HOMIE JUST TWEETED. PEANUT EMOJI. HES 1) NUTTING 2) SAYING 35 IS PEANUTS 3) GIF SAYS THERES A CHANCE, SHORT SQUEEZE IMMENINT HOMIES Edit 4: Amazing post here showing that unlucky prize guy was wrong like I said. Ihor also talked about the hypothecation agreement. Edit 5: This is true and I forgot to add from u/luncheonmeat79 via /wallstreetbets sent 2 minutes agoEdit 6: We are scraping 42 in frankfurt. Granted its low volumes but pre market should open at these prices I think? Conclusion: Buy shares with cash not margin. Hold shares forever unless RC dies (Shame hes a cybernetic demigod), Melvin bad, Shorts fuk, 🐻 🌈 posting bearish shit are doing weeklies for the second time after they expired red on friday, GME to $200 without squeeze, Ryan cohen a god, GME is still a value play, Good luck have fun. |
Hello fellow retards submitted by PutsOnYourWife to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] I know these are difficult times for this sub and it’s almost impossible to post something solid which is not about the current meme stocks. Instead of jerking to some porn i did some research on PLTR and want to share my DD with you. This might be a longer text for your love dopamine level so maybe you should grab some your Adderall before. The following text might you give your eyes aids since English isn’t my native language. I will try my best. Palantir as a Company – the beginnings PLTR was founded by some people and one of them is Peter Thiel who worked alongside with our holy papa Elon at PayPal. As a payment-service they had concerns about money laundering and founded PLTR to tackle this issue early. The CIA also funded PLTR (they are always funding stuff like this – Siri as example). This actually might be the reason why people think that PLTR is a company which aggregates data and do data analysis for the government….but this is not accurate and not correct at all if you see the big picture. I will explain this point later. You retard still reading? Nice here some rocket emoji’s to pump your dopamine and keep you happy. 🚀🚀🚀 Let’s start with the DD First of all my POV is looking for a midterm to long term investment in PLTR. My valuation considers PLTRs current state and predicting from now on for the next few years.
PLTR basically offers systems to big companies/governments which import their data into these systems. PLTR doesn’t sends workers to the client to collect data and analyse it. They sell platforms. They got 2 Products called “Gotham” and “Foundry” You may think wtf is this guy talking about? Let me explain it in 2 examples: First example is Syria with Gotham. It was impossible in the country to know who the good guys are and who the bad ones are. I know u muricans only know yourself and the rest of the world is the “rest of the world” for you. But this wasn’t so simple in Syria you had many factions with different intentions and some of them were allies and some of them were enemies. The lack of information or the ability of recognizing and sorting these information’s are crucial in a war. PLTR solved the struggle with creating a map which provided resilient information for the marines so they can operate safely. Civil problems over there could also be fixed. https://www.mercurynews.com/2016/10/04/palantir-using-big-data-to-solve-big-humanitarian-crises/ Actually what the John Hopkins University does with the covid numbers and the map, is some sort of what PLTR offering with their solutions. There are rumors that the tracking of Covid and the vaccination will be done by PLTR. In their S1 Form PLTR describes it this way “Gotham, our first software platform, was constructed for analysts at defense and intelligence agencies. They were hunting for needles not in one, but in thousands of haystacks. And they did not have the software they needed to do their jobs. In Afghanistan and Iraq, soldiers were mapping networks of insurgents and makers of roadside bombs by hand. Gotham enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants, and helps U.S. and allied military personnel find what they are looking for.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1321655/000119312520230013/d904406ds1.htm#rom904406_11 The second example is about “Foundry” and it’s directly from the S1 File of PLTR (page 121) “An Airbus A350, for example, has five million parts and is built by hundreds of teams that are spread across four countries and more than eight factories. Companies routinely struggle to manage let alone make sense of the data involved in large projects. Foundry was built for them. The platform transforms the ways in which organizations interact with information by creating a central operating system for their data.” Both of these systems solving big issues with less effort. The arms industry as example would took billions for drones and stuff in Syria for the same job. The important fact is that PLTR does not spend so much resources for new clients they only have to provide access and support for their services and the client feeding the “machine” with data. The key point is to understand that PLTR benefits very huge from economy of scales. This is very important since their costs for additional revenue is basically flat while the profits growing exorbitant with new customers. They offer a software and platforms and not kind of services where they need man power. All they do is working on their platforms and improving it. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-palantir-ipo-breakingviews-idUSKCN26E3I2
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/technology/peter-thiel-bet-donald-trump-wins-big.html But this didn’t happened. Peter got cucked by the huge authority apparatus in pentagon. These dudes loves bureaucracy and they do it for a good reason. If you retire from your job in pentagon you usually get a high paid luxurious position at Lockheed, Raytheon or Bae Systems to make additional free money for your retirement. Many thousand people working in pentagon just to select and buy stuff for the government. They spending billions of dollars for purchases and then PLTR came around and said like „look guys we can do this job for a few millions instead billions“. Of course the arms industry was pissed and the pentagon boomers helped them out. PLTR got constantly scammed from boomers and didn’t get the contracts. This was also the „swamp „trump was talking about. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-28/inside-palantir-s-war-with-the-u-s-army https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2017/03/27/palantir-trump-army-military-procurement.html A fun fact to this matter: Before James Mattis got summoned as the Defense Secretary of the USA he was a general in Afghanistan. He ordered services from PLTR despite the fact the pentagon was against it. But the marines praised PLTRs software and valued it over the trash they used to know from the defense/arms industry. Processing img 2os8izwwe4h61... https://www.military.com/defensetech/2013/07/01/special-forces-marines-embrace-palantir-software Even with a James Mattis as the defense secretary, trump as president and regardless that PLTR does it better and cheaper than the arms industry, it wasn’t possible for PLTR to get the government contracts. https://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/11/palantir-defense-jim-mattis-inner-circle-239373 https://fortune.com/longform/palantir-pentagon-trump/ How it’s ended? Well Peter’s wife doesn’t have a boyfriend because Peter is the fucking boyfriend of their wifes. All ended at the court and PLTR won. All this injustice ended at the court. The judgements on these cases are true circuit breakers for PLTR. Not only because PLTR spent shit tons of money for law suits. The lawsuits were perfect uppercut hits on the arms industry and they ended some fraudulent behaviors and „best practices „in the government https://www.defensenews.com/land/2016/10/31/judge-rules-in-favor-of-palantir-in-lawsuit-against-us-army/ https://www.defensenews.com/land/2019/03/29/palantir-who-successfully-sued-the-army-just-won-a-major-army-contract/ PLTR will profit from a Biden who wants to decrease the military expenditures. They will get the job done and at the same time the costs will go down. With the recent judgements the door looks open.
Let’s talk about the market. The whole market seems overpriced but it isn’t tbh. Due to the low cost of capital there is no alternative than to throwing your money on stocks or on real estate. There is nothing with a solid interest rate around (not even in emerging markets). At the stock exchange like in 70s, the companies had to offer a return, a perspective which should be more attractive as putting your money on a saving account with 8% interests without risks. These times are gone since the 2000s. So before people discuss insane valuation they should check out the fiscal and economical policies. Now back to PLTR and why the price is difficult to set (cheap imo). First of all PLTR did a direct listing without an investment bank for their share offerings. Its lacking of the valuation which they usually would get through such a process. PLTR wanted to do IPO with Morgan Stanley but it was mess. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-04/morgan-stanley-s-long-romance-of-palantir-pays-off-as-ipo-nears Morgan Stanley proved themselves many times as stubborn communists when it comes to valuations. I mean you guys remember their disgusting price targets for tesla like 100$ post split or stuff like that. These guys are very focused on numbers and I know it’s difficult to price in the potential and perspectives. But you can’t ignore these things for a fundamental valuation. If you want to consider these things in the price you have to understand the business of the company. This ended that one team at Morgan Stanley valuated PLTR with 5 billion while another team thought they worth 40 billion. https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2018/11/14/palantir-ipo-valuation-morgan-stanley.html How is this difference possible and why is this happening? Because people don’t understand what they are valuating. This happened a lot in the last decade because the decision makers in these banks and many analyst don’t have any idea which metrics they should use on companies like that. They are using the metrics from classical industries on new business. They freaked out when Facebook was valued with 100 billion as IPO. Same with Twitter and in the last years it was Tesla. They said apple going to tank every damn year in the last decade. I honor Warren Buffet so much since he has the dignity to realize that he don’t understands something but at the same time he sees the potential and the trend. That’s why he hired 2 Chads who bought Snowflake for him. The transformation and the generation change didn’t happened yet. That’s why they try to use the metrics from Caterpillar on Tesla. Guys the whole market is mooning with the cheap liquidity. Pennystocks and zombie companies transforming into billion dollar market cap companies. Facebook as IPO had a market cap of 104 billion back in 2012. At that time it wasn’t possible for Facebook to monetize their users with selling ads. They just paid 100 billion for the potential in more difficult market conditions. Look at the IPOs like doordash, Bumble. I’m not going to call this a bubble. Just check out their business cases and use the metrics. Maybe its easier for people to understand Bumble and Doordash… On page 12 of the S1 (balance sheet) Form you can already see the huge positive trends in PLTRs revenue and their costs. All this without all the positive events and contracts PLTR recently got. PLTRs valuation is difficult and I think it’s miscalculated by pessimistic communist who don’t understand that their products are game changers for industries, governments and defense forces. Because of these points I think there is huge price potential for PLTR
As PLTR competitor people use to mention IBM. The boomers from IBM already surrendered with their Windows95 computers and decided to cooperate. The biggest threat would be big tech with big money like AMZN or APPL. You all now the stories about APPL and Spotify or AMZN and all the merchants. Even if the big players would step into PLTR markets it would be difficult for them since PLTRs products doesn’t rely on an Amazon store or on apple devices. PLTR is years ahead with their products. I think the greatest risk (still) are the boomerish arms industry and all the boomers in pentagon and other authorities. There are very corrupt infrastructures when it comes to decision making and assigning contracts. People fear changes but they can’t avoid the changes. With the recent judgements we can see a turn on the tables but the transformation will still take time. It’s a circuit breaker with an avalanche effect. The risk factors on page 16 on the S1 form mostly aren’t relevant anymore. People complained that PLTR wasn’t profitable for 18 years. Well PLTR was never designed to be profitable and Alex Karp once said “love us or leave us alone”. https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2020/09/09/palantir-ceo-makes-livestreamed-pitch-to-investors.html But even this changed recently. PLTR became profitable in 2020 with 130,000,000§. Now the same people complaining about how high the stock price compared to the profits. Well just you wait.
https://preview.redd.it/qqcv8vzee4h61.jpg?width=744&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=98d264f091b7ff80926038660f43c57b87fc8ef2 https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2020/global-military-expenditure-sees-largest-annual-increase-decade-says-sipri-reaching-1917-billion With Bidens presidency we will see more disruptive technologies chosen by the government. Biden want to reduce the military expenditures. PLTR is able to provide better service for lower cost. Not only the recent judgements also the political change will help PLTR. Ironic if you remember that Peter supported Trump and getting his tendies from Biden.
“The systemic failures of government institutions to provide for the public — fractured healthcare systems, erosions of data privacy, strained criminal justice systems, and outmoded ways of fighting wars — will continue to require both the public and private sectors to transform themselves. We believe that the underperformance and loss of legitimacy of many of these institutions will only increase the speed with which they are required to change.”
A remember the recent examples? Bumble?! Bruuuh. Don’t get me wrong if you invested in Bumble but they have nothing special to offer and their business case can easily copied or improved by others. Its shows the current state of our market with the crazy liquidity that even zombie companies got astronomic valuations. Use these metrics on PLTR with great products, great management, low cost base and less odds as ever before…. PLTR price is wrong imo especially in this market and with PLTRs current state and perspective.
If all these information would priced in correctly we would have a share price of at least 60-70$. With upcoming and ongoing positive events PLTR share price should soar more.. What’s next? Now we have earnings ahead and the lock up period ending. For the earnings I think the number will be fine and keep up the positive trend on revenue with a disproportionately trend of the costs. The most important part will be guidance for 2021. We should listen closely and see if the magic is already happening. The second event is the ending of the lock up period. You all remember the end of the lock up period of Nikola? Just 1-2 days after they announced they don’t got the GM deal? The stock tanked – for a good reason. You know the guy Trevor Milton. But in PLTRs case everything is different. Despite the successful deals they got, does a guy who says “love us or leave us alone” sounds like someone who going to drop his shares at the first possibility? I don’t expect such a behavior from Alex Karp and neither from Peter Thiel. If some employees drop their shares it should be fine. I would appreciate if the stock prices would go below 3ß. It would create a healthy bullish chart pattern and would be actually a nice discount to get in or stock up. I don’t think that the shares going to dump a lot because of this event. The earnings and the guidance are more important and the key events if you want to invest mid – long term. What does all this means for you? Nothing! Please don’t do any market activity based on my DD. I’m just sharing my knowledge and looking for critics so I can reevaluate my theses. This is not a financial advice. My hearts bleeding for all the GME holders. My last Reddit account got banned because I criticized “the pumpers”. In one of the comments I called the mods gay and got banned permanently (bye bye 20 k karma). If you are new to this please don’t do any decision based on this so I can sleep gladly. I’m not well positioned and not trying to pump this stock. I have 70 shares and a CSP. Fair play and fuck all the bots and pump and dumper we recently got in the sub! Leave an upvote if this post helped you. I need some more karma to be able to shitpost everywhere again! |
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